European Autonomy - Let’s learn from Digital
On the morning of May 14, 2025, Karim Khan arrived at his office in The Hague. The sky was lightly clouded but warmer than it had been in previous days. Otherwise, it was an ordinary day. Khan powered up his PC and entered his password, but nothing happened. He couldn't log in. His password was correct; he had checked it multiple times. Yet, all he saw was the startup screen. He couldn't access his work computer, and neither could his over 1,000 employees.
Karim Khan is the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which had issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2024. Donald Trump deemed this unacceptable and imposed US sanctions on the ICC in February. It appears that Microsoft felt compelled to comply with these sanctions, promptly blocking access to its operating system for all ICC employees. Regardless of the merits of the case, it is alarming that a single company can so severely disrupt the operations of an officially recognized international organization.
This incident raises questions about the extent to which organizations and states are dependent on individual companies for certain aspects of digital infrastructure. Whether it's operating systems, servers, hardware, or the marketplaces and communication platforms of our time, over 75% of all relevant digital infrastructure is controlled by just four US-based companies. These monopolies would be concerning even if Europe's partnership with the US were as strong as it was during the peak of transatlantic friendship—which, unfortunately, it is not.
We find ourselves in this precarious situation because we did not act decisively enough 25 years ago. Europe failed to build and support its own digital economy, nor did it take sufficient action against emerging monopolies. This was partly because many politicians did not recognize the internet as an economic space or a threat to our democracy, dismissing it as a mere plaything for scientists and nerds. Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl rejected the nationwide expansion of fiber optic cables in the 1980s, and Chancellor Merkel described the internet as "new territory" as late as 2013. We are now paying the price for these past mistakes, attempting to rectify them with regulations like the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA). However, these measures are too late, too cumbersome, and unfortunately not strong enough to fundamentally solve the problems.
Worse still, it seems we have not learned from these mistakes.
Today's space industry resembles the internet of 20 years ago. Space travel is slowly becoming accessible to the general public. Private space ventures are not yet highly profitable, and few can envision practical applications. However, monopolies are already forming, and once again, they are based in the USA. Elon Musk's SpaceX conducts 60% of all rocket launches worldwide and owns approximately three-quarters of all satellites in low Earth orbit. Many are celebrating these developments, much like they did 20 years ago when Google made navigating the internet free and Facebook connected people worldwide. Thanks to SpaceX, space travel costs are lower than ever, and Starlink is bringing the internet to the most remote corners of the Earth. However, too few are looking to the future, and even fewer are learning from the history of the internet.
If monopolies in space continue to develop as they have in cyberspace—whether controlled by Musk, Thiel, Bezos, Xi Jinping, or others—the consequences will be even more dramatic. Unlike cyberspace, where the limits are determined by servers and semiconductors, physical space in the cosmos is much more constrained. More than a million satellites cannot fly safely in low Earth orbit. Whoever occupies this space will effectively control what humanity can do in space. This is not just an economic issue. The potential for communication, surveillance, energy generation, research, and navigation from space is enormous, and these capabilities inherently carry risks of misuse.
Are we using our Earth observation satellites to combat climate change and assist refugees? Will everyone continue to have access to positioning systems like GPS, or only those who bow to Trump? Will giant satellites collect energy to provide a sustainable source for humanity or destroy sensitive infrastructure? But even more alarming than the mere existence of these questions is the prospect of private billionaires having the sole power to answer them. These issues are too significant to be left to the whims of a few individuals; they must be placed under democratic control.
Today's politicians must finally open their eyes and look to the future. Space travel is no longer a luxury or a mere plaything for nerds and the super-rich. In 20 years, space will be a source of value creation for Europe—or it won't. Space will influence our security, for better or for worse.
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. We missed that opportunity in the digital realm. The second-best time is now. Europe must plant its space tree today to harvest the fruits—prosperity and security—in 20 years.
It is unclear what exact problems space travel will bring, but there will be challenges. After all, who would have thought 20 years ago that a social network could endanger our democracy?
Niklas Nienass